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Issue Environ. Biosafety Res.
Volume 3, Number 3, July-September 2004
Page(s) 149 - 157
DOI 10.1051/ebr:2004013

Environ. Biosafety Res. 3 (2004) 149-157
DOI: 10.1051/ebr:2004013

Gene flow scenarios with transgenic maize in Mexico

José-Antonio Serratos-Hernández1, Fabián Islas-Gutiérrez1, Enrique Buendía-Rodríguez1 and Julien Berthaud2

1  Campo Experimental Valle de México, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Mexico
2  Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, France

(Received April 1, 2004; accepted August 11, 2004)

Abstract
Maize diversity is widespread in Mexico and it has been stewarded by campesinos in small communities until the present. With the arrival of transgenic maize, the objective of this study is to analyze possible scenarios that could result if genetically modified maize were not regulated and openly available in Mexico. By applying a simple logistic model based on the conditions of maize production in Mexico, the dispersion of transgenic maize in different situations within fields of farmers is described. In traditional open systems of freely exchanged seed within communities it is concluded that the most likely outcome of GM maize release is the incorporation of transgenes in the genome of Mexican germplasm and possibly in that of teosinte.


Key words: maize / landraces / teosinte / transgenes / gene flow / biosafety / GIS / Mexico

Corresponding author: José-Antonio Serratos-Hernández aserratos@cgiar.org

© ISBR, EDP Sciences 2004


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